As retail prepares for the year-end hurrah of the 2025 holiday season, experts are looking for answers to the be-all-end-all question: Will U.S. holiday retail sales be up or down this year? 

While only time will tell, new forecasts continue to roll in from various sources, hoping to accurately predict consumer spending habits over Black Friday, Cyber Monday — which has morphed into Cyber Week in recent years — and, of course, the final push for Christmas shopping throughout the month of December. 

So, what are the latest holiday predictions? 

Based on promotional period data from Q3 and October, along with consumer survey results, analysts’ current 2025 holiday sales outlook is still somewhat of a mixed bag — and understandably so, with unpredictable factors like tariffs impacting potential outcomes. 

Amazon Prime Day October 2025 Recap 

First, let’s consider recent results from Amazon’s two-day Prime Day event on October 7-8. Given that more mass retailers now host their own versions of Prime Day, experts view this pre-holiday sales bonanza as a strong indicator of what’s to come in November and December. This year was no exception. 

Here’s what some reports had to say about Prime Day. 

According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers spent a combined $9.1 billion across all US retailers during the October sales period, up 7.3 percent year-over-year. Yet, while 48 percent of Prime Day shoppers were motivated by tariffs to “presumably get ahead of expected price increases coming down the pike,” 29 percent of those surveyed approached the sale with more caution because of the current economy, and 28 percent did limit spending due to uncertainty surrounding inflation and cost of living increases. 

Further, a National Retail Federation study found that only 23 percent of U.S. consumers utilized the October Prime Day event to get ahead on holiday shopping, down from 45 percent in 2024.  

Independent Retail Fall 2025 Sales Results 

Next, let’s look at independent retail sales performance in the appliance category for the fall promotional window covering September 25 through October 22. 

During this Fall Savings Promo period, Nationwide Marketing Group (NMG) dealers saw promising growth despite current economic headwinds across the broad retail sector, including a 2.3 percent dollar increase year-over-year (YoY). The single-piece rebate strategy — a major competitive advantage — continues to drive sales, specifically among value-conscious consumers who are less interested in purchasing a full suite of appliances. 

On the digital front, NMG retailers continue to maximize ROI through vendor-funded campaigns, which outperformed with an average cost-per-click of only $0.57 and an average click-through-rate of 1.03 percent versus the industry average of 0.69 percent. And dealers with NMG OneShop websites also saw strong YoY performance, including: 

• +4.6 percent in orders
• +17 percent in revenue
• +12 percent average e-commerce ticket    

Overall, NMG member retailers are up 10 percent in dollars year-to-date (YTD), while the total appliance industry is currently flat YTD and is projected to remain flat through the end of 2025. 

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2025 Holiday Retail Season Forecast 

So, what does this tell us about the upcoming 2025 holiday season? 

Overall, Forbes summarized that “Amazon’s October Prime Big Deal Days saw shoppers prioritize practical essentials due to economic uncertainty and inflation, resulting in less enthusiastic sales than July’s event. Lower satisfaction and average order sizes reflected consumer caution, with many comparing prices and limiting spending. This indicates a potentially challenging and unpredictable holiday retail season ahead, as consumers remain wary of economic factors.” 

And Circana’s chief retail advisor Marshal Cohen cautions that this year’s holiday shopping outlook is more unpredictable than usual. “The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season,” he said in a statement. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.” 

On November 6, the National Retail Federation (NRF) plans to release its holiday forecast — several weeks later than usual, which is also a reflection on this year’s tough-to-predict economic landscape. 

Yet, to reiterate NMG CEO Tom Hickman’s message from PrimeTime back in August, uncertain times build strength and endurance. Using a surfing analogy, Hickman advised that “we can’t wait for perfect conditions to go,” but can instead lean into small waves to gain momentum and enjoy the ride.  

As retail officially heads into the holiday season, these words continue to ring true. Lean in, embrace opportunities, tune out the noise, and let your holiday spirit shine this year.