Truth be told, the economic climate for any given year can be unpredictable.
That is why identifying trends, embracing new opportunities, and leaning into your strengths is so important. As we look at expert predictions for the latter part of this year and into 2026, consider what you can control and how you can stay in the know. Here’s a look at what Nicole Cervi, Economist for Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment Banking, shared with us.
What’s Next: Inflation, Taxes, and Housing
Tariff rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025, and real disposable income growth is forecast to strengthen amid easing inflation and lower personal tax rates in 2026. With more cash on hand, households are poised to ramp up spending through the year. Home sales are forecast to rise four percent in 2026, which will provide a demand for lift for both the independent channel and big box chains.
How to Stay Informed in 2026
The second half of the year looks soft for the consumer as a result, but 2026 holds the promise of lower taxes and lower interest rates, both of which should be more supportive of consumer spending. Yet the swiftness of recent economic policy changes suggests the outlook could change quickly. To stay on top of the latest trends, retailers can subscribe to free commentary from Wells Fargo at wellsfargo.com/economics.
What Does This Mean for You?
The independent retailer advantage over Big Box is this: You are nimble.
Tariffs apply universally, impacting every reseller equally. Where independents shine is their agility: with access to a wider range of brands and knowledgeable sales professionals, you can swiftly redirect customers from heavily tariff-hit models to comparable, lower-cost alternatives.
NMG Expert Tips
NMG Senior Director of Luxury Appliances, John O’Halloran, offers two tips for dealers to maximize potential during this time of economic unpredictability.
- Continue to diversify the brands you sell and the categories you are in. This includes the luxury category. We are finding that more consumers are considering premium or luxury items that will perform better and last longer.
- Invest in your people; they are your superpower! Independent retailers also win with true sales professionals and expert delivery and installation teams — who provide superior customer service through extensive product knowledge and personalized support.
FOR MORE TIPS, read our full Independent Thinking Magazine: August 2025 edition.
